What changes the way a crisis unfolds?
Pick a starting situation, change one condition, and follow how pressure travels between six connected systems over the years that follow.
The connected systems
Select a system to follow it. Tap an arrow to read how pressure moves.
Households feel this as higher bills, lost hours and thinner savings.
Why it went this way
How much does this control matter here?
Where the pressure comes from
Model settings and definitions
Follow the evidence.
Data definitions and methods
Background and observed recovery
Inspect the forecast.
Follow its evidence.
Four original calls, their reasoning, and what the evidence can support. Open a call to see where its target and confidence came from.
The original percentages were assigned judgments, not model estimates. Their basis has been reviewed; the original records remain available for checking.
Original calls and basis reviews
These earlier judgments remain available alongside the separately dated research above.
See the effect on your budget.
Apply a price change. Check the monthly balance, how long the reserve lasts, and how the same rise lands on a tighter budget.
Your inputs stay in this browser.
Budget assumptions and calculations
Starting values are editable assumptions. Income and expenses use the currency units you enter. Energy, food and housing shares sit within total essential spending; the remaining share stays constant.
Monthly balance equals adjusted income less adjusted essential expenses. Cash reserve equals the selected months of starting essential expenses. A negative monthly balance gives reserve cover equal to cash reserve divided by the monthly deficit. The reserve path simply subtracts (or adds) that balance every month; it assumes nothing else changes.
The comparison household uses the same percentage changes with its own starting budget. It illustrates unequal exposure to one price change; it is not a measured population group.
Tax treatment, interest, spending behavior and expense timing stay constant. Observed price inputs use matching annual changes from aggregate U.S. CPI series. Shelter CPI measures aggregate housing costs; your own income and budget remain the household inputs.