When the next shock arrives before recovery.
Disruptions draw down the reserves that sustain daily life. Trace the pressure across connected systems and test how timing and investment change recovery.
Explore the recovery problemPressure travels through connections.
Recovery depends on what remains in reserve.
Conceptual transmission map. Select a domain to explore its observed data.
How much room
is left to recover?
Overlapping disruptions compete for the same reserves. Recovery depends on the pressure that accumulates and the capacity available for repair.
Start with the observed record. Adjust the scenario controls to isolate the effects of shock timing and transmission. Use the household calculator to examine monthly exposure, then track forecasts against their deadlines.
Read the signals.
Follow the change.
Compare dated observations in their original units, with source records and historical context.
Historical rank locates each value within its reference series. Higher percentiles indicate a more adverse position in that series.
Data definitions and methods
Give recovery
room to work.
Run the same shocks through connected and isolated systems. Then add reserves and investment to see what changes.
Compare stress, reserves and recovery under the assumptions you set. Stress uses relative model units; reserves use a percentage of capacity.
Three shocks, then recovery over five or ten years.
Energy
Stress over time
Connections are the only difference between the connected and isolated runs. The restored run adds reserves and recovery investment.
The reserve beneath the stress
Select a domain to inspect its modeled stress, remaining reserve and repair load.
How pressure travels
Compare a small change
Mean pressure across six domains. Higher numbers mean more pressure; use the scale to compare scenarios.
Where the difference remains
Try the same change with different reserves
Each pair keeps its own starting conditions and shock schedule fixed while applying the selected change.
Scenario assumptions and metric definitions
Protect the margin.
Measure the impact.
The same price shock reaches households with different margins.
Set a starting budget and apply price changes. Calculate the monthly balance and how long cash reserves cover a recurring deficit.
Your budget stays in this browser.
Budget assumptions and calculations
Starting values are editable assumptions. Income and expenses use the currency units you enter. Energy, food and housing shares sit within total essential spending; the remaining share stays constant.
Monthly balance equals adjusted take-home income less adjusted essential expenses. Cash reserve equals the chosen months of starting essential expenses. For a negative monthly balance, reserve cover equals that reserve divided by the monthly deficit. A positive balance leaves the reserve intact under the selected inputs.
The calculation holds tax treatment, interest, spending behavior and expense timing constant. The observed-price option applies matching annual changes from aggregate U.S. CPI series; shelter CPI measures aggregate housing costs. Your own income and budget remain the household inputs.
Make the call.
Track the result.
See what we expect, why it matters and what to watch. Every call has a deadline and a clear test.
Judgment forecast
Forecast confidence reflects judgment.
How we check forecasts
Each call records an estimate at a specific date. The original statement and check rule stay attached to that record. At the deadline, the result is checked against the rule set when the call was made.